Houston Dynamo FC @ New England Revolution
HDFAwayHouston Dynamo FC34%
@NERHomeNew England Revolution40%
Model PickNew England Revolution 40%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects a 40% chance of victory for New England Revolution, favoring them over Houston Dynamo FC (34%) and a draw (26%). This prediction is primarily driven by the 'Home Advantage' factor, with New England's 'Attack (goals/game)' and 'Defense (goals against/game)' also contributing positively. However, 'Season Form (record)' poses a key risk that could work against New England.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Houston Dynamo FC vs New England Revolution by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 40% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-2
Attack (goals/game)+1.1
Defense (goals against/game)+1.1
Shots on Target %+0.4
Baseline 50% → final home win54.3%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 40%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New England Revolution at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home New England Revolution 9-3-5 vs Away Houston Dynamo FC 9-2-6 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home DWDLW vs Away WWDDL (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.65 vs Away 1.47 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.24 vs Away 1.41 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 38.38% vs Away 35.53% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 16.4% vs Away 12% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 49.37% vs Away 45.57% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 87.26% vs Away 87.01% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 66.67% vs Away 55.51% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Key Winger Debut
Revolution's Jack Harrison has obtained his U.S. Green Card, making him eligible to debut this Saturday at Gillette Stadium. This could provide a significant boost to the team's offense.
Basis: LLM · news · Jack Harrison granted U.S. Green Card, eligible to
Qualitative · Road Trip Fatigue
Houston Dynamo FC is on a two-match road trip, having just played Sporting Kansas City. This back-to-back away schedule could lead to player fatigue.
Basis: LLM · news · Houston Dynamo FC open a two-match road trip
Qualitative · Defensive Morale Boost
Houston Dynamo FC secured their second consecutive shutout victory against Sporting Kansas City, indicating high morale and strong form in their defense.
Basis: LLM · news · Houston Dynamo FC secure their second consecutive
Qualitative · Late-Game Focus Issues
The New England Revolution drew 2-2 with CF Montréal, conceding a late equalizer in the second half, which suggests potential issues with maintaining focus until the final whistle.
Basis: LLM · news · CF Montreal rallies in second half to salvage 2-2
11 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Revolution winger Jack Harrison granted U.S. Green Card, eligible to debut Saturday at Gillette Stadium
- MATCH PREVIEW: Houston Dynamo FC open a two-match road trip, traveling to face historic rivals Sporting Kansas City on Saturday night
- Recap | Revolution and CF Montréal duel to 2-2 draw
- Houston Dynamo FC secure their second consecutive shutout victory at Sporting Kansas City
- Santos and Bouzat score for Dynamo, shut out Sporting KC
- New England vs. Houston (Aug 8, 2026) Odds and Spread
- New England vs. Houston (9 Aug, 2026) Live Score
- The new MLS Power Rankings are here and not every team will like their placement
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Houston Dynamo FC vs New England Revolution — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New England Revolution a 40% chance to win (Home 40% · Draw 26% · Away 34%). MLS · 2026-08-09 05:30 KST.
How was the 54.3% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 54.3%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.